Be It Resolved by Brad Steiman
January 18th, 2011 - Article
While people commonly make New Year’s resolutions to eat less, exercise more, and make other lifestyle changes for improved health, some investors also might consider forming new financial habits to improve their long-term wealth. Brad Steiman proposes ten investment resolutions for 2011.
It’s that time of year when many of us think about establishing one or more New Year’s resolutions. This often means committing to improving one’s lifestyle by losing weight, exercising more, or drinking less. Some investors could probably benefit from resolutions targeting their financial health as well. Just as many individuals endanger their well-being with bad habits, numerous investors suffer from ill-advised practices that are detrimental to their wealth. Perhaps a set of New Year’s investment resolutions, along with an advisor capable of helping investors adhere to them, will lead to a more prosperous future.
Everybody wants to be healthier, and many people want to be wealthier, but it’s just not that easy. Most of us are creatures of habit and discover that making permanent changes in our behavior is surprisingly difficult. We need every possible mental crutch at our disposal to help us adhere to a new regimen; hence we establish mental road signs, such as New Year’s resolutions, as behavioral aids.
To make matters worse, our commitment to change is sometimes tested by examples of those who ignore prudent behavior to their apparent advantage and those who follow it to their apparent detriment. Winston Churchill lived to age 90, fortified by an ample supply of champagne and cigars, while author and jogging enthusiast Jim Fixx died of a heart attack at age 52. In the financial world, the investor who sunk every penny into Apple shares ten years ago watched her investment multiply over forty-fold while a globally diversified equity portfolio lost money. These isolated examples may test our faith but should not encourage us to abandon a proven set of prescriptions; continuing to apply them will still improve our odds.
So, for those who find making such promises useful, here are ten investment-related resolutions that will hopefully result in better long-term wealth:
| 1. | I will not confuse entertainment with advice. I will acknowledge that the financial media is in the entertainment business and their message can compromise my long-term focus and discipline, leading me to make poor investment decisions. If necessary I will turn off CNBC and turn on ESPN. |
| 2. | I will stop searching for tomorrow’s star money manager, as there are no gurus. Capitalism will be my guru because with capitalism there is a positive expected return on capital, and it is there for the taking. And for me to succeed, someone else doesn’t have to fail. |
| 3. | I will not invest based on a forecast—whether it is mine or anyone else’s. I will recognize that the urge to form an opinion will never go away, but I won’t act on it because no one can repeatedly predict the future. It is, by definition, uncertain. |
| 4. | I will keep a long-term perspective and appropriately consider my investment horizon (i.e., how long my portfolio is to be invested) when determining my performance horizon (i.e., the time frame I use to evaluate results). |
| 5. | I will continue to invest new capital and work my plan because it is time in the market—and not timing the market—that matters. |
| 6. | I will adhere to my plan and continue to rebalance (i.e., systematically buying more of what hasn’t done well recently) rather than “unbalance” (i.e., buying more of what’s hot). |
| 7. | I will not focus my portfolio in a few securities, or even a few asset classes, as diversification remains the closest thing to a free lunch. |
| 8. | I will ensure my portfolio is appropriate for my goals and objectives while only taking risks worth taking. |
| 9. | I will manage my emotions by learning about and acknowledging the biases and cognitive errors that influence my behavior. |
| 10. | I will keep my cost of investing reasonable. |
Most of us find it hard to follow a sensible diet or a sensible investment strategy 100% of the time. If you must stray when managing your wealth or well-being, moderation is the key. Chocolate cake is OK, as long as it’s not for dinner every night. Speculating on a stock or two is all right as well, as long as you don’t do it with your investment capital.
Finally, just as successful athletes rely on coaches and trainers to help them achieve their goals, most investors can probably benefit from having a “financial coach” to remind them about their New Year’s resolutions and keep them on track toward a more prosperous future.
I wish you and your clients good health and good wealth in 2011.
The comments of Weston Wellington are gratefully acknowledged.
1. Globally diversified portfolio represented by MSCI World Index performance. As of November 30, 2010, the ten-year annualized compound return (gross dividends) for the index was -1.78%. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2010, all rights reserved.
Dimensional Fund Advisors (“Dimensional”) is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
This article contains the opinions of the author but not necessarily the opinions of Dimensional. The opinion of the author is subject to change without notice. All materials presented are compiled from sources believed to be reliable and current, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This article is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation or endorsement of any of the products or services described in this website.
© 2011 Dimensional Fund Advisors. All rights reserved. Unauthorized copying, reproducing, duplicating, or transmitting of this material is prohibited.
Changing Jobs? Take Your 401(k) and . . . Roll it!
January 16th, 2011 - Article
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If you’ve lost your job, or are changing jobs, you may be wondering what to do with your 401(k) plan account. It’s important to understand your options. What will I be entitled to?If you leave your job (voluntarily or involuntarily), you’ll be entitled to a distribution of your vested balance. Your vested balance always includes your own contributions (pretax, after-tax, and Roth) and typically any investment earnings on those amounts. It also includes employer contributions (and earnings) that have satisfied your plan’s vesting schedule. In general, you must be 100% vested in your employer’s contributions after 3 years of service (“cliff vesting”), or you must vest gradually, 20% per year until you’re fully vested after 6 years (“graded vesting”). Plans can have faster vesting schedules, and some even have 100% immediate vesting. You’ll also be 100% vested once you’ve reached your plan’s normal retirement age. It’s important for you to understand how your particular plan’s vesting schedule works, because you’ll forfeit any employer contributions that haven’t vested by the time you leave your job. Your summary plan description (SPD) will spell out how the vesting schedule for your particular plan works. If you don’t have one, ask your plan administrator for it. If you’re on the cusp of vesting, it may make sense to wait a bit before leaving, if you have that luxury. Don’t spend it, roll it!While this pool of dollars may look attractive, don’t spend it unless you absolutely need to. If you take a distribution you’ll be taxed, at ordinary income tax rates, on the entire value of your account except for any after-tax or Roth 401(k) contributions you’ve made. And, if you’re not yet age 55, an additional 10% penalty may apply to the taxable portion of your payout. (Special rules may apply if you receive a lump-sum distribution and you were born before 1936, or if the lump-sum includes employer stock.) If your vested balance is more than $5,000, you can leave your money in your employer’s plan until you reach normal retirement age. But your employer must also allow you to make a direct rollover to an IRA or to another employer’s 401(k) plan. As the name suggests, in a direct rollover the money passes directly from your 401(k) plan account to the IRA or other plan. This is preferable to a “60-day rollover,” where you get the check and then roll the money over yourself, because your employer has to withhold 20% of the taxable portion of a 60-day rollover. You can still roll over the entire amount of your distribution, but you’ll need to come up with the 20% that’s been withheld until you recapture that amount when you file your income tax return. Should I roll over to my new employer’s 401(k) plan or to an IRA?Assuming both options are available to you, there’s no right or wrong answer to this question. There are strong arguments to be made on both sides. You need to weigh all of the factors, and make a decision based on your own needs and priorities. It’s best to have a professional assist you with this, since the decision you make may have significant consequences–both now and in the future. Reasons to roll over to an IRA:
Reasons to roll over to your new employer’s 401(k) plan:
When evaluating whether to initiate a rollover always be sure to (1) ask about possible surrender charges that may be imposed by your employer plan, or new surrender charges that your IRA may impose, (2) compare investment fees and expenses charged by your IRA (and investment funds) with those charged by your employer plan (if any), and (3) understand any accumulated rights or guarantees that you may be giving up by transferring funds out of your employer plan. What about outstanding plan loans?In general, if you have an outstanding plan loan, you’ll need to pay it back, or the outstanding balance will be taxed as if it had been distributed to you in cash. If you can’t pay the loan back before you leave, you’ll still have 60 days to roll over the amount that’s been treated as a distribution to your IRA. Of course, you’ll need to come up with the dollars from other sources. |
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| Forefield Inc. does not provide legal, tax, or investment advice. All content provided by Forefield is protected by copyright. Forefield is not responsible for any modifications made to its materials, or for the accuracy of information provided by other sources. |
| Prepared by Forefield, Inc. Copyright 2011. |
Deciding When to Retire: When Timing Becomes Critical
January 16th, 2011 - Article
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Deciding when to retire may not be one decision but a series of decisions and calculations. For example, you’ll need to estimate not only your anticipated expenses, but also what sources of retirement income you’ll have and how long you’ll need your retirement savings to last. You’ll need to take into account your life expectancy and health as well as when you want to start receiving Social Security or pension benefits, and when you’ll start to tap your retirement savings. Each of these factors may affect the others as part of an overall retirement income plan. Thinking about early retirement?Retiring early means fewer earning years and less accumulated savings. Also, the earlier you retire, the more years you’ll need your retirement savings to produce income. And your retirement could last quite a while. According to a National Vital Statistics Report, people today can expect to live more than 30 years longer than they did a century ago. Not only will you need your retirement savings to last longer, but inflation will have more time to eat away at your purchasing power. If inflation is 3% a year–its historical average–it will cut the purchasing power of a fixed annual income in half in roughly 23 years. Factoring inflation into the retirement equation, you’ll probably need your retirement income to increase each year just to cover the same expenses. Be sure to take this into account when considering how long you expect (or can afford) to be in retirement.
Source: National Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 58, No. 19, May 2010 There are other considerations as well. For example, if you expect to receive pension payments, early retirement may adversely affect them. Why? Because the greatest accrual of benefits generally occurs during your final years of employment, when your earning power is presumably highest. Early retirement could reduce your monthly benefits. It will affect your Social Security benefits too. Also, don’t forget that if you hope to retire before you turn 59½ and plan to start using your 401(k) or IRA savings right away, you’ll generally pay a 10% early withdrawal penalty plus any regular income tax due (with some exceptions, including disability payments and distributions from employer plans such as 401(k)s after you reach age 55 and terminate employment). Finally, you’re not eligible for Medicare until you turn 65. Unless you’ll be eligible for retiree health benefits through your employer or take a job that offers health insurance, you’ll need to calculate the cost of paying for insurance or health care out-of-pocket, at least until you can receive Medicare coverage. Delaying retirementPostponing retirement lets you continue to add to your retirement savings. That’s especially advantageous if you’re saving in tax-deferred accounts, and if you’re receiving employer contributions. For example, if you retire at age 65 instead of age 55, and manage to save an additional $20,000 per year at an 8% rate of return during that time, you can add an extra $312,909 to your retirement fund. (This is a hypothetical example and is not intended to reflect the actual performance of any specific investment.) Even if you’re no longer adding to your retirement savings, delaying retirement postpones the date that you’ll need to start withdrawing from them. That could enhance your nest egg’s ability to last throughout your lifetime. Postponing full retirement also gives you more transition time. If you hope to trade a full-time job for running your own small business or launching a new career after you “retire,” you might be able to lay the groundwork for a new life by taking classes at night or trying out your new role part-time. Testing your plans while you’re still employed can help you anticipate the challenges of your post-retirement role. Doing a reality check before relying on a new endeavor for retirement income can help you see how much income you can realistically expect from it. Also, you’ll learn whether it’s something you really want to do before you spend what might be a significant portion of your retirement savings on it. Phased retirement: the best of both worldsSome employers have begun to offer phased retirement programs, which allow you to receive all or part of your pension benefit once you’ve reached retirement age, while you continue to work part-time for the same employer. Phased retirement programs are getting more attention as the baby boomer generation ages. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, by 2012 workers age 55+ will represent almost 20% of the U.S. workforce, and many employers are forecasting an eventual shortage of skilled workers. In the past, pension law for private sector employers compounded the problem by actually encouraging workers to retire early. Traditional pension plans generally weren’t allowed to pay benefits until an employee either stopped working completely or reached the plan’s normal retirement age (typically age 65). This frequently encouraged employees who wanted a reduced workload but hadn’t yet reached normal retirement age to take early retirement and go to work elsewhere (often for a competitor), allowing them to collect both a pension from the prior employer and a salary from the new employer. However, pension plans now are allowed to pay benefits when an employee reaches age 62, even if the employee is still working and hasn’t yet reached the plan’s normal retirement age. Phased retirement can benefit both prospective retirees, who can enjoy a more flexible work schedule and a smoother transition into full retirement; and employers, who are able to retain an experienced worker. Employers aren’t required to offer a phased retirement program, but if yours does, it’s worth at least a review to see how it might affect your plans.
*Age 55 for distributions from employer plans upon termination of employment Check your assumptionsThe sooner you start to plan the timing of your retirement, the more time you’ll have to make adjustments that can help ensure those years are everything you hope for. If you’ve already made some tentative assumptions or choices, you may need to revisit them, especially if you’re considering taking retirement in stages. And as you move into retirement, you’ll want to monitor your retirement income plan to ensure that your initial assumptions are still valid, that new laws and regulations haven’t affected your situation, and that your savings and investments are performing as you need them to. |
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| Forefield Inc. does not provide legal, tax, or investment advice. All content provided by Forefield is protected by copyright. Forefield is not responsible for any modifications made to its materials, or for the accuracy of information provided by other sources. |
| Prepared by Forefield, Inc. Copyright 2011. |
Download a PDF copy: Deciding When to Retire: When Timing Becomes Critical
Too Much Company Stock?
January 16th, 2011 - Article
Too Much Company Stock?
Diversification begins at the office
Imagine this introductory conversation between a 52 year-old executive at a large corporation and his newly hired investment advisor:
Advisor: Tell me about your portfolio.
Executive: About $800,000 in my Schwab account. Mostly stock funds. Some bonds. Some money market.
Advisor: What stocks?
Executive: All passively managed mutual funds. Very diversified. Large cap, small cap, growth, value, emerging markets.
Advisor: What else?
Executive: Well, I have company stock too.
Advisor: How much?
Executive: All of my 401k, plus some more. About $600,000 altogether.
Advisor: Okay. That’s quite a bit in one company. Have you thought about reducing that? Diversifying more?
Executive: Well, I work there. I want to keep that stock. It’s a great company.
This is an imaginary discussion, but the dilemma is a real one for many investors – a high concentration of assets in their employer’s stock in an otherwise well-diversified portfolio.
Based on loyalty to the employer, overconfidence in the company’s future, or simple inertia, it is sometimes easier to hold onto company stock than to sell it. Furthermore, if the stock has appreciated strongly or was purchased at below market cost through stock options, a big tax bill on capital gains may be waiting when shares are sold.
Double danger
Being invested in the results of one’s employer seems like an obvious virtue, but it comes at a risk. Holding a big stake in any single stock is risky. One negative surprise – real or perceived – can send a company’s stock price tumbling. A failed product, lawsuit, industrial accident, harsh analyst commentary, product recall, breakthrough by a competitor, or scandal of any flavor can cut a company’s market value in half overnight. Or worse.
But that’s only half of the hazard. When a company’s stock slides fast, it is often a result of – or the cause of – other calamities, including layoffs, restructurings, divestitures, plant closings, product line cuts, or outsourcing. In the extreme, of course, a company may be sold, enter bankruptcy, or simply close its doors.
Major disruptions like these can mean lost jobs, creating the risk of a double danger – a shrinking portfolio and the loss of employment.
The role of the 401k
401k plans can drive up employee stock holdings. At businesses where company stock is offered as an asset allocation option, 20.5 percent of 401k assets are invested that way. And nearly 7 percent of participants in those plans have more than 80 percent of their account balances invested in company stock, according to an October 2009 report from the Employee Benefit Research Institute.1
The result can be rough. Consider the infamous implosion of one of the 1990’s highest flying companies, the energy firm Enron. At Enron, more than 57 percent of employees’ 401(k) assets in 2001 were invested in company stock as it fell 98.8 percent in value that year.2 Five thousand jobs disappeared too.
Likewise, employees at Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Washington Mutual, General Motors and many other companies were left holding significant stakes in their companies during the very dark days of 2008. By the time the scope of the financial crisis became clear, stock prices were plummeting; it was too late to sell. Then the other shoe dropped; thousands lost their jobs.
The worst outcome for an investment, of course, is complete loss of value, as in a bankruptcy. While individual companies can and do go bankrupt, it is very unlikely that a diversified portfolio of hundreds or thousands of holdings could ever collapse to zero.
When emotion gets into the equation
Investing is technically complex, but psychology and emotion play big roles too. The way investors look at money, investments, and financial plans can lead to portfolio situations they might otherwise rigorously seek to avoid. Here are some mindsets that can cause trouble:
This stock is special. When individuals receive stock from their employer, through a gift, or via inheritance, it is often treated as separate from the rest of a portfolio. Keeping a distinct account for this special stock is fine, but treating it differently – especially as “sacred” and unsalable – can lead to dangerous overconcentrations. In the end, the source of funds or securities should have no bearing on how they are invested.
I work here. Shares of company stock can hold emotional value in addition to monetary value. Selling them can feel like treason, but the investor’s first responsibility is to his or her family and financial future. Ignoring the need for diversification – one of prudent investing’s most fundamental principles – for the sake of corporate loyalty can be a costly mistake.
It could never happen to me. No one expects a worst-case disaster with his or her employer – neither via a falling stock price nor a lost job. But thousands of laid off workers today will tell you that anything is possible. No matter how unlikely, this is a kind of risk that can be avoided, and should be.
The taxes on my gains are too high. When company stock has appreciated, contributing a portion of the gains to the IRS can be a tough pill to swallow. Nonetheless, the benefit of increasing diversification is often worth it. An investment advisor can often reduce the tax on gains by using tax mitigation strategies.
Do you own too much?
It is easy to accumulate company stock, and often difficult to let it go. Still, paring down employer stock holdings clearly reduces risk associated with unpredictable events that may affect the company. It can also eliminate an unintended overweighting in that stock’s asset class.
Avoiding the double risk of a falling stock price and job loss – no matter how unlikely it may be – should be high on the priority list for all investors. A first step toward this goal is an unemotional review of your portfolio – determining the true level of exposure to your employer’s fortunes.
1 “401(k) Plan Asset Allocation, Account Balances, and Loan Activity in 2008,” By Jack VanDerhei, EBRI; Sarah Holden, ICI; and Luis Alonso, EBRI; Employee Benefit Research Institute; October, 2009. www.ebri.org
2 “Putting Too Much Stock in Your Company—A 401(k) Problem,” FINRA.org (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority)
© 2010 Bright Sky Group, LLC. All rights reserved.
Bright Sky Group, LLC is not a registered investment adviser. The views expressed by Bright Sky Group represent the opinions of members of Bright Sky Group, but should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Further, the views are subject to change and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. The material provided by Bright Sky Group is for informational purposes only. Statements of future expectations, estimates or projections, and other forward looking statements are based on available information deemed reliable, but the accuracy of such information cannot be guaranteed. Statements are based on assumptions that may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Bright Sky Group member firms are each registered investment advisers, which are independently owned and operated from each other. Bright Sky Group provides general financial information. The services, securities and financial instruments described by Bright Sky Group may not be available to or suitable for you, and not all strategies are appropriate at all times. The value and income of any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned herein can fall as well as rise, and an investor may get back less than he or she invested. Foreign-currency denominated securities and financial instruments are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have a positive or adverse affect on the value, price or income of such securities and financial instruments. Independent advice should be sought for an investor’s specific needs.
“Being invested in the results of one’s employer seems like an obvious virtue, but it comes at a risk. Holding a big stake in any single stock is risky. …But that’s only half the hazard.”
Health Savings Accounts: Are They Just What the Doctor Ordered?
January 16th, 2011 - Article
Health Savings Account: Are They Just What the Doctor Ordered?
The End of Social Security’s Interest-Free Loan
January 16th, 2011 - Article
The End of Social Security’s Interest-Free Loan
The end of Social Security’s payback option means there is less room for error when devising a strategy to maximize your Social Security benefits.
The U.S. Social Security Administration (SSA) announced December 8 that, effective immediately, the ability to “pay back” Social Security benefits will be allowed only during the first 12 months following the first month of receiving benefits. In addition, the new ruling states that only one withdrawal or “payback” is allowed per lifetime, and the ability to withdraw benefits will be effective only after the month in which the request is made.
Previously, retirees who paid back their Social Security benefits and refiled received higher payments based on delayed retirement credits. For example, if John’s full retirement benefit is $1,000, filing early at 62 would give him a reduced monthly benefit of $750. On the other hand, waiting until full retirement age would give him $1,000 and waiting until age 70 would give him $1,320 per month. Under the old rules, John could file at age 62, then pay back all benefits received and refile at age 70, which would increase his benefit to $1,320 per month.
The SSA stated its intentions to revise the withdrawal policy earlier this year after the program was portrayed as an “interest-free loan” from the government. The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College estimated the payback option cost the Social Security system somewhere between
$5.5 billion and $8.7 billion.1
Going forward, you can take advantage of the payback option only if you began taking benefits less than one year ago. The loss of this option makes it more important that you have a tailored Social Security strategy from the beginning.
1 Alicia Munnell, Alex Golub-Sass and Nadia Karamcheva, Strange But True: Free Loan From Social Security. Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, March 2009.
Copyright © 2010, Buckingham Family of Financial Services. This material and any opinions contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and the opinions based thereon are not guaranteed. The content of this publication is for general information only and is not intended to serve as specific financial, accounting or tax advice. To be distributed only by a Registered Investment Advisor firm. Information regarding references to third-party sites: Referenced third-party sites are not under our control, and we are not responsible for the contents of any linked site or any link contained in a linked site, or any changes or updates to such sites. Any link provided to you is only as a convenience, and the inclusion of any link does not imply our endorsement of the site.
What Are Some Strategies for Maximizing Social Security Benefits?
December 16th, 2010 - Video
What Are Some Strategies for Withdrawing Social Security Benefits?
November 28th, 2010 - Wealth Management
Riding Out the Turbulence
August 11th, 2010 - Article
An investment policy statement takes emotion out of investment strategy
Imagine using the following rule to make investment decisions: When the market falls 30%, bail out and sit on the sidelines until it rises to a higher level. This flawed sell-low/buy-higher strategy sounds ridiculous, but it is often the result investors experience when fear overrides reason.
Turbulent markets can bring out the worst in the best-meaning investors. Worries of a market collapse can trigger short-sighted, emotional decisions that lead to poor results.
Despite, or perhaps because of, the big run-up from market lows in March 2009, anyone looking for reasons to abandon the stock market has had plenty to choose from recently. As many dour on-air financial commentators have repeated every few minutes, the euro is teetering, jobless claims remain high, healthcare reform is too expensive, the deficit is out of control, bank credit is still MIA. And so forth.
When the major indices fell seven percent in a few days in early May 2010, many investors had a bad feeling of déjà vu. A panicky sentiment swelled among many market pundits, leaving individuals wondering where to go. Some are surely heading for the exits; others are considering doing so.
Panic is not a strategy
Fear can be a rational feeling in uncertain circumstances, but retreat is not always the best response to that fear. Investors who leave the market in fear of a decline are often making a decision with long-term consequences based on short-term memories and stimuli. Moving money from stocks to fixed income investments or very low interest savings instruments can provide the emotional satisfaction of “doing something – anything!” but this kind of speculative market timing often leads to being out of the market during a big move up.
A more prudent approach is to create and follow a comprehensive long-term financial plan, guided by a disciplined investment policy statement (IPS).
The investment policy statement
An investment policy statement takes emotion out of the equation, regardless of what is going on in the markets day to day. Developed with an investment advisor, the IPS describes the investor’s risk tolerance, needs and goals and the investment strategy that will be used to pursue those goals. It should include specific allocation ranges for different asset classes – such as 10-15 percent large cap domestic stocks, 25-30 percent bonds, and so on. When price changes cause allocations to move out of these target ranges, the portfolio should be rebalanced – brought back to its original target allocation.
Because it describes a long-term plan based on long-term goals, an IPS rarely accommodates short-term moves based on fear, greed, fad, hunch, rumor, or whim. Most often an IPS reminds us to stay the course, to trust the risk and return characteristics of different asset classes, even when the path is rocky and uncomfortable. Like the golden rule of winter driving – don’t stomp on the brakes if you hit an icy patch – the IPS can provide the fortitude to do nothing when our instincts tell us just the opposite.
The statement itself should be reviewed and revised when the investor’s situation changes – income needed for retirement, the sale of a business, a death or divorce. But changes to the IPS are generally not appropriate if the only things that have changed are recent market performance and the tenor of talking heads.
Ignore the animals
Keeping emotion out of the equation gets more difficult every year. The ever-present financial news channels and web sites, celebrity market commentators, rampant blogging and real-time stock quotes on our iPhones saturate our senses. Ignoring all this minute-by-minute market data and commentary is like going to the zoo and trying not to notice the animals, but getting past all the short-term noise allows investors to stay focused on long-term goals and strategies…and sleep at night.
Warren Buffett, long known for buying when others are panicky to sell, often reminds investors that a calm, disciplined long-term perspective is crucial. “Those who invest only when commentators are upbeat end up paying a heavy price for meaningless reassurance,” he states in the Berkshire Hathaway 2009 annual report. “In the end, what counts in investing is what you pay for a business – through the purchase of a small piece of it in the stock market – and what that business earns in the succeeding decade or two.”1
Like it or not, the stock market goes up and down, sometimes violently. Over the long term, however, the prevailing direction of the market is up, driven by advances in productivity, new technologies, expansion to new markets and other ingredients of growth. No one can predict the timing of rising stock prices, of course, but one thing is certain – one must be in the market when it rises to participate in the returns. A consistent buy-hold-rebalance strategy assures exposure to the long-term potential offered by equities.
Maintaining perspective
There’s no question that economic, political and market news can be unsettling. But as consumers of the news, it is our burden to keep it in perspective, something the media often fails to do. Non-stop media coverage that hyped unlikely dangers convinced some viewers to stock up on rations for Y2K, a crisis that never materialized. We were also flooded with coverage of H1N1 flu, a serious health threat but one no more deadly than typical seasonal viruses. And highly trained meteorologists armed with the latest technology routinely predict storms that fail to form.
Ultimately, we must recognize that not every news story is a crisis, that not every fluctuation in the market – large or small, up or down – is a signal to buy or sell, that not every dire or exuberant prediction on CNBC will come true. Our best defenses against emotion-based decisions are a thoughtfully designed investment policy statement, patience and calm.
1 2009 Berkshire Hathaway annual report: www.berkshirehathaway.com/2009ar/2009ar.pdf
© 2010 Bright Sky Group, LLC. All rights reserved.
Bright Sky Group, LLC is not a registered investment adviser. The views expressed by Bright Sky Group represent the opinions of members of Bright Sky Group, but should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Further, the views are subject to change and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. The material provided by Bright Sky Group is for informational purposes only. Statements of future expectations, estimates or projections, and other forward looking statements are based on available information deemed reliable, but the accuracy of such information cannot be guaranteed. Statements are based on assumptions that may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Bright Sky Group member firms are each registered investment advisers, which are independently owned and operated from each other. Bright Sky Group provides general financial information. The services, securities and financial instruments described by Bright Sky Group may not be available to or suitable for you, and not all strategies are appropriate at all times. The value and income of any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned herein can fall as well as rise, and an investor may get back less than he or she invested. Foreign-currency denominated securities and financial instruments are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have a positive or adverse affect on the value, price or income of such securities and financial instruments. Independent advice should be sought for an investor’s specific needs.
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